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Japanese Q2 growth weak
Mon, Aug 13, 2007
AsiaOne

TOKYO, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Japan's economy grew an anemic 0.1 percent in the April-June quarter, reinforcing expectations that a shake-out in global markets may prompt the central bank to rethink a rate hike this month.

The growth in gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy, fell short of an already modest consensus forecast for a 0.2 percent increase, although analysts said that in itself would not prompt the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to hold fire.

"If the GDP figure alone is considered, the BOJ would raise rate on solid fundamentals," said Mamoru Yamazaki, chief economist at RBS Securities.

"But given subprime problems and their impact on the market, the rate hike this month has become more unlikely."

Exports lost momentum in the quarter, partly because of slower U.S. growth, yet overall GDP growth still marked the 10th straight quarter of expansion and economists said mild expansion in the Japanese economy was continuing.

Financial markets showed limited response as the data produced few surprises.

The growth translated into an annualised growth of 0.5 percent, below economists' forecast of a 0.9 percent expansion and much slower than slowdown from a revised 3.2 percent increase in the previous quarter.

External demand, which boosted growth by 0.4 percentage point in the January-March quarter, made no contribution to growth in April-June, reflecting the weak exports.

Private consumption slowed to a 0.4 percent rise from a 0.8 percent increase in January-March.

But growth in companies' capital spending, a key driving force of the economy, rebounded to 1.2 percent from 0.3 percent in the previous quarter, pointing to solid expansion down the road.

"The overall growth is weak on the surface, but it is largely a reaction from the sharp growth in January-March," said Naoki Iizuka, senior economist at Mizuho Securities.

"Consumption and capital expenditure were relatively firm, which show Japan's economy remains on track for steadly growth led by domestic demand," Iizuka added.

Japan's economy has been expanding since early 2002 and is enjoying its longest period of growth in the postwar era, albeit at a slower pace than in previous booms.

With the economy in good shape, many analysts had expected the BOJ to bump up its key policy rate at its Aug 22-23 meeting to 0.75 percent -- the highest level since 1995 -- from 0.50 percent.

But traders scaled back expectations of an August move, as speculation grew that concerns over the liquidity squeeze and resulting market volatility could persuade the BOJ to leave rates unchanged for now.

The BOJ scrapped its zero interest rate policy and raised the key overnight call rate target to 0.25 percent in July last year. It nudged up rates again to 0.5 percent in February and has kept monetary policy on hold since then.

The government made a minor revision to the way it complies preliminary GDP from the April-June data, which included a change in the calculation method for inventory contributions to GDP.

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