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1. Obama's supporters are more energised
Obama is a great crowd-puller and has energised young and first-time voters.
A recent USA Today/Gallup poll found that 74 per cent of Obama voters said they are keener about voting this time than in previous elections, while only 48 per cent of McCain voters said the same.
These Obama supporters do not see Obama as the lesser of two evils, but as a beacon of hope.
2. Obama has a superior ground game
Thanks partly to Senator Hillary Clinton challenging him deep into the primary season, Obama is better organised at the neighbourhood level than any previous Democratic presidential candidate.
His campaign is also making good use of technology, like e-mail, text messages and social networking websites.
3. Obama has a superior 'air' game
Obama's pockets are so deep he's able to bombard TV and radio at the end of the campaign with ads that counter John McCain's criticisms of him and launch attacks on the latter.
4. McCain has lost his brand
He started off with the image of a bipartisan straight-shooter with a clear, selfless sense of proportion. Yet he's campaigned like a crank with his over-the-top assaults on Obama's character and that of his associates.
5. Sarah Palin is turning out to be the disaster from Alaska
Her ignorance, revealed in early TV interviews, may just be McCain's downfall. Polls now show her as a drag on the Republican ticket.
6. Obama hasn't lost his cool
While the McCain campaign kept trying out new themes, the Obama campaign stuck to its theme of change.
The more people saw of Obama, the less he seemed like the frightening, radical, terrorist sympathiser in McCain's cartoonish rhetoric.
7. McCain hasn't been able to fight the Bush headwinds
No matter how many times McCain said 'maverick', he still couldn't create enough distance from the deeply unpopular president to draw voters hungry for new leadership.
8. Obama has been lucky
Things have been relatively quiet all year on the terror and national security fronts, which are McCain's strengths.
Plus the major crisis of the campaign season - the financial meltdown - not only played into one of Obama's perceived strong suits, it also caused McCain to appear impulsive and indecisive in the face of a sudden challenge.
...and why he may LOSE
1. 'Bittergate'
Obama's unscripted comment made in April may have offended small-town voters.
He said: 'It's not surprising (that residents of small-town America) get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy toward people who aren't like them.'
2. Obama played too much defence
Though his campaign has run tonnes of ads criticising McCain, they have not raised questions about the latter's character and his judgment. But the same cannot be said of the McCain side.
3. Obama was dismissive of festering issues
When questions came up about Obama's real estate dealings with crooked fundraiser Tony Rezko, he tried to brush them off with curt denials rather than bury them with documents and comprehensive answers.
4. Obama left points on the table
McCain named Rick Renzi, a retiring Republican congressman, a co-chair of his Arizona campaign in January, though he was reported being probed for federal corruption. He is now facing trial.
Yet the Obama campaign hasn't made an issue of him or of McCain's friendship with convicted Watergate burglar Gordon Liddy.
5. Joe Biden's gaffe
When he blathered on recently about an inevitable crisis in the first months of an Obama administration, it paved the way for McCain to play the fear card.
6. The economy now looks more like a chronic woe than an urgent crisis
This has allowed McCain to settle into an anti-tax, anti-spend, anti-liberal campaign groove that often works for Republicans.
7. Smoke
If enough voters decide that there must be fire somewhere in all that smoke about Obama, his apparent lead will vanish.
8. He's African-American
It's been a bad year for the Republican brand. If McCain was up against a white Democrat, he would have no shot at all.
This article was first published in The New Paper on Nov 2, 2008.
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