By Peh Shing Huei, China Bureau Chief

It has been nicknamed the 'so-so' meeting. But if and when Chinese President Hu Jintao and Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou do meet, it will be anything but middling.

The imminent return of Mr Ma to the chairmanship of the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) has fuelled speculation of a meeting with Mr Hu - the highest- level contact in one of the world's most dangerous flashpoints.

Taiwanese and Hong Kong media reports have jokingly tagged it the 'Ma Ma Hu Hu' meeting, a play on the leaders' surnames and a homonym for a Chinese saying which means 'so-so'.

But there is no mistaking how momentous such a pow-wow would be.

Although successive KMT chairmen Lien Chan and Wu Poh-hsiung have met Mr Hu here in Beijing, they were not Taiwan presidents. They had met Mr Hu in their capacities as party leaders.

The return of Mr Ma to the KMT chair - he had held the seat from 2005 to 2007 - allows him to now meet Mr Hu as party chief, but at the same time carrying the weight and heft of a state leader.

As China and Taiwan do not recognise each other, their leaders cannot meet in their official capacities.

But a Hu-Ma meeting will be a de facto 'heads of state' meeting, the first since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949. The significance, especially for Mr Hu, will be far-reaching.

'Chinese leaders are very concerned with their historical status,' said Hong Kong-based analyst Joseph Cheng. 'Look at how they treat the reunification of Hong Kong. Taiwan is much, much, much more important than Hong Kong. Hu would love to be seen to have done something for the return of Taiwan.'

And on the cards, say observers, is a possible peace treaty between the two sides, putting a formal end to the civil war which came to a halt in 1949 when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) drove the KMT out of the mainland and onto Taiwan island.

In the past six decades, the CCP has insisted that Taiwan remains a part of China, and that it would reunite the renegade province by force if necessary. Tension was high at various points, with China even lobbing missiles into the sea off Taiwan in 1996.

'A peace treaty will be a milestone in cross-strait relations,' said Professor Yang Dali of the University of Chicago. 'But Hu will not want to rush. An agreement has to be subordinate to the overall goal of reunification.'

A peace treaty could be a carrot which the CCP dangles in exchange for Taiwan to start talks towards eventual reunification, a concrete step which will give Mr Hu's legacy a huge boost.

In 1980, former Chinese paramount leader Deng Xiaoping had listed 'Three Major Tasks' for the decade. They were: maintaining peace, increasing the pace of economic construction and realising unification. While the first two have largely been achieved, unification has been only partly realised with the return of Hong Kong and Macau to the mainland in 1997 and 1999 respectively.

Taiwan remains outside the reach of mainland China and as Deng's handpicked 'Fourth Generation' leader, Mr Hu would relish being the CCP man to complete the Three Major Tasks of his late mentor.

'If Hu can preside over the beginning of negotiations to reunification, he can claim to have made important achievements in line with the past great Chinese leaders,' said Prof Cheng.

It is thus critical for Mr Hu to have the meeting with Mr Ma before he is slated to step down in late 2012. Some Taiwanese analysts are putting their money on a meeting in Singapore later this year, during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.

Another plausible date is Oct 10, 2011, to mark the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Republic of China and the end of centuries of imperial rule in China, said Professor June Teufel Dreyer of the University of Miami.

But a more realistic date is mid-2012, after the Taiwan presidential election in March, and before Mr Hu steps down in autumn.

'Ma wouldn't dare to meet Hu before the end of his first term,' said cross-strait analyst Chu Jingtao of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

'He would be afraid that a meeting might affect his chances of re-election. But if he manages to stay for a second term and even increases his vote share, he will have the confidence to fly to Beijing.'

But analysts also cautioned against getting overly excited, as there are lots of issues that need to be ironed out before a meeting, let alone a peace treaty, can be arranged and inked.

'I believe that, abstractly, Hu very much wants to get a treaty, but the crucial issue will be the terms he is able to get. Hu has his enemies, as we know, and most of them feel strongly that the only acceptable agreement will be for Taiwan to agree to 'return' to the embrace of the ancestral land as a province or, at best, an SAR with very limited autonomous powers,' said Prof Dreyer, referring to the Special Administrative Region status of Hong Kong and Macau.

'Ma also has his enemies, who would erupt in furious anger if he attempted to agree to anything like this.'

Added Prof Chu: 'The mainland will hope to meet as party leaders and avoid the issue of who is the country leader. Taiwan will hope to meet as the leader of Taiwan. The CCP does not recognise the Republic of China. How do you talk to someone whom you do not acknowledge? It's very complicated. It is not as simple as showing up and shaking hands.'

But there are optimistic observers too, looking beyond a Hu-Ma meeting and a possible peace treaty. They are saying that - just perhaps - no less than a Nobel Peace Prize awaits the two men, which would be a first for Chinese leaders. As early as January this year, the influential Southern Weekend newspaper in China mooted a joint Nobel prize for Mr Hu and Mr Ma for their efforts in building ties across the Taiwan Strait.

'The strait is potentially one of the most dangerous spots in the world. Any settlement will be a great legacy and deserving of the award,' said Prof Yang.

This article was first published in The Straits Times.