BY SHEFALI REKHI

ASSISTANT FOREIGN EDITOR

WITH the exception of China, the rest of Asia is likely to take a back seat when a new president takes over the White House next year.

When Asia does get into the picture, the spotlight will most likely be on China, Washington watchers say. Again domestic imperatives dictate this focus.

China, an economic powerhouse, has to be fully engaged if the US and the rest of the world are to avoid a deep and severe slump, analysts say.

Bilateral ties will not be trouble-free if job losses grow and protectionist feelings rise.

But the US, faced with a huge and ballooning budget deficit, will find its ability to project power crimped. There will be less talk of containment and of checking China's rise as a rival.

Money matters aside, key security concerns in Asia will require Beijing playing a bigger role if Washington hopes to manage successfully the trouble spots of Afghanistan and North Korea.

"The North Korean denuclearisation issue is going to be very sensitive,"said Dr Bo Zhiyue of the East Asia Institute in Singapore. "We don't know what will happen to (its ailing leader) Kim Jong Il, who will eventually become his successor, how that will influence ties between South Korea and North Korea, and what will happen to Pyongyang's nuclear commitments.

"China will play a critical role and Washington realises that it will have to work with Beijing." China ? with which Pakistan has been seeking closer ties - can also play a role in encouraging Islamabad to do more to fight cross-border terrorism.

And that is key to the other big Asian concern for the next US president: Afghanistan. With the Iraq war winding down, that is likely to be the next bloody arena for US troops as Taleban and Al-Qaeda fighters grow more powerful.

With China's growing clout, Washington's ties with Taiwan may undergo a subtle shift. Fresh arms sales, for example, are unlikely to take place so as not to rile Beijing.

A re-examination of Washington-Beijing ties will also mean that the three-way partnership involving the US, Japan and Australia will not strengthen into an alliance, observers add.

So what happens to the rest of Asia outside of China and the trouble spots?

Despite pronouncements by policy advisers to both Senators Barack Obama and John McCain that their man will pay more heed after the neglect of the Bush years, that is unlikely to happen.

"We have seen less than optimal US interest in the region in recent years," noted Mr Manu Bhaskaran, an adjunct senior research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies in Singapore. "We should be prepared to see it worsen."

As for South-east Asia, Mr K. Kesavapany, director of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, said: "As far as we are concerned, Myanmar is the only issue and if they don't pressure us, it will be fine...The key message that some of us in Asia want to hear is that the White House will pay greater attention to this region."

But, he concedes the next president will have to attend to matters that hold greater significance and urgency for the American people, such as bringing the troops home from Iraq.

What some experts say needs watching too is the impact of the slowdown of the US economy on trade and investment in Asia. Already, protectionist demands are being made by Democrats running in congressional elections.

South Korea, which signed a free trade agreement with the US in June last year, is hoping its ratification will proceed.

If the deal withers, it will bode ill for other similar arrangements and plans for a broader Asia-Pacific free trade area.

This article was first published in The Straits Times on Nov 1, 2008.

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