NEW YORK - WALL Street may be a mess, but in the final hours before Tuesday's US election one share just keeps rising: Barack Obama.

Stock market-style betting systems are trading Mr Obama and his Republican rival John McCain like any other commodity - minus all the turbulence.

Intrade.com, one of the world's biggest prediction markets, quotes Mr Obama at 91.2 per cent likely to win and Mr McCain at 9.4 per cent, with the spread widening by the hour.

Another, the Iowa Electronic Markets, predicts Mr Obama 91.5 per cent likely to get in and Mr McCain 8.6 per cent.

Political futures trading doesn't get the attention given to opinion polls.

Yet bookies say their predictions, based on cold money instead of heated politics, are often more accurate.

'When someone bets, they are backing it up with what's coming out of their wallets. So it's not only an emotional investment, but a financial investment,' said Mr Ken Robertson at Paddy Power, Ireland's biggest bookmaker.

'That's better than basically standing in the street and asking people questions,' he told AFP.

The Iowa Electronic Markets, which is run by the University of Iowa as a research project, found in a study that it had beaten the polls 74 per cent of the time over 20 years.

That's because ratings are driven by a market, according to spokesman Tom Snee.

The project allows maximum bets of US$500 (S$740), enough to concentrate the minds of investors, who tend to be more educated about politics than the average target of a pollster.

'The difference is that polls ask 'who do you plan to vote for?', which is really 'who do you want to win?' We ask, 'who do you think will win?'' Mr Snee said.

'So it's the difference between your heart and your head. If you put US$500 on it, then it will be about who you think will win.'

Even if the race appears sewn up for Mr Obama, big gambling houses say they will keep bets open right up until results come in.

Three weeks ago Paddy Power paid out a million euros (S$1.9 million) on Mr Obama as president, declaring the race as good as over. But bets reopened immediately, with latest odds of 1:14 for Mr Obama and a distant 13:2 for Mr McCain.

Mr Robertson said one of the most recent bets placed on Mr Obama was worth 100,000 pounds (S$230,000), with a possible return of just over 11,000 pounds.

Not that everyone has given up on Mr McCain. For the hard core gambler the Republican ticket may just be an enticing prospect.

'My money... will be on the underdog John McCain at a fat, plus-money price,' comments gambler Ted Sevransky on betting site covers.com.

Mr Sevransky argues that while people may claim to back Mr Obama, latent racism means they will actually vote the other way.

'This is a 50:50 election, just like the last two in a divided United States. That makes the plus price for McCain an easy wager to make.' -- AFP