IT IS still unclear what the ripple effects of the Dubai debt moratorium will have on other economies and financial institutions, but fugitive Thai former premier Thaksin Shinawatra could well be affected immensely, either through investment or personal predicament.

He has reportedly left Dubai suddenly for a trip to an unnamed European country, perhaps needing to draw on reserves of funds.

If the Dubai debacle has hit him hard, we can expect him to become even more desperate in his political moves - especially since it comes on top of an upcoming Thai court judgment on a big chunk of his assets.

The reason for his calling off a planned rally in Bangkok last weekend must have also been partly influenced by Dubai's problems, which could imperil his stay in the city-state.

For some years now, he has used the emirate as his base for investment and political campaigns to destabilise the government in Bangkok, with marginal success.

Nobody knows, except for Thaksin, how much he has invested in real-estate projects and financial and debt instruments there.

This is because he is unlikely to admit anything that will cast him in a bad light.

But the amount will not be small, judging from the patronage the ruler of Dubai has provided.

So, it is likely that the trouble in Dubai means a lot of trouble for Thaksin.

Judging by his ego and eagerness to please the Dubai investment community and make his presence as a billionaire felt, his investments must be sizeable.

It could be billions of baht, if not far more, because of his faith in the city-state and its future - which resembled gold to many.

His abrupt departure for Europe, with no reason given, could mean he has to tap on deposits in countries that serve as tax havens.

If so, with suddenly-depleted resources, he could become an eagle with clipped wings, and one less able to "fly around and swoop down".

If he continues to incite trouble at home via the pro-Thaksin "red shirt" protesters, the Dubai authorities could kick him out.

Last month, the United Arab Emirates - to which Dubai belongs - said it would ask him to leave immediately if he uses it as a base for attacking the Thai government.

A Thaksin forced to leave Dubai would be unable to stay on to look after his investments and other assets - especially problematic if those assets face the risk of being wiped out by the default of Dubai World.

This could be why his forces suddenly cancelled their rally.

Yet, the pressure to go for broke could force him to abandon all caution.

If he is financially crippled, the assets of 76 billion baht (S$3.2 billion) frozen by Bangkok - and about to be decided on by a court, with a verdict expected this month - becomes more indispensable, representing a larger portion of what he owns than ever before.

He may, therefore, redouble his efforts to force out the Abhisit government at whatever cost, including by instigating the red shirts and other allies.

There have been disheartening rumours around town that he has offered up to half of the frozen assets to whoever is able to help him win the court case and reclaim the amount.

Taken all together, we can expect more trouble, with revived street rallies this month.

Thaksin's desperate battle to get back the vast fortune from the state will embolden him to do whatever is necessary.

What does he actually want now?

Most importantly, he probably seeks total freedom from all criminal prosecution and amnesty from his jail term, so that he can travel freely as before.

In terms of politics, he can let his cronies take control of the government via the election process. He will use big money and other tricks to wield power.

If the above transpires, it means more trouble ahead and an unpredictable conclusion.

It will not be pleasant for us to witness.

If street battles erupt, much will depend on how the authorities decide to restore peace.

This is an unsavoury prospect.