TAIPEI, TAIWAN - TAIWAN'S next president will have to work hard to carve out a meaningful role for the island on the international stage, and relations with China hold the key to success, analysts say.

The favourite to win Saturday's vote, the opposition Kuomintang party's Ma Ying-jeou, has promised to forge closer ties with Beijing while maintaining friendly relations with Washington.

In contrast, the governing Democratic Progressive Party's Frank Hsieh has focused his campaign on stressing Taiwan's sovereignty in the face of China, which still claims the self-ruled island for itself.

'Taiwan's international space will certainly be decided by its relationship with Beijing,' said National Chengchih University professor Chao Chien-min.

Due to pressure from Beijing, Taiwan has been barred from participating in the United Nations and some other international organisations.

Mr Ma has said he hopes to end hostilities across the Taiwan Strait, forge a peace treaty with Beijing, allow in more Chinese tourists and open the island to Chinese investors via a 'common market' on trade.

For Mr Ma, a vice-chairman of the island's China policy-making body from 1991 to 1993, Taiwan's diplomacy 'is an extension of its mainland policy'. He has accused the pro-independence DPP government of adopting a 'scorched earth diplomacy' against China that has led to seven countries in eight years switching diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing.

Taiwan and China split in 1949 at the end of a civil war.

Mr Hsieh, too, has called for an easing of the cross-strait standoff, but his stress on sovereignty has irked Beijing.

'The two candidates may have little difference in their efforts to step up cross-strait civil exchanges, but things are different when it comes down to implementation,' Professor Chao said.

'If elected, Hsieh might take less confrontational measures against China than the outgoing President Chen Shui-bian,' he added.

'Still, Hsieh's policy on China remains that of 'one country each side' (of the strait) which has irritated Beijing,' Prof Chao said.

Analysts say Beijing is digesting the messages from the candidates, which, while talking tough on China - both Mr Hsieh and Mr Ma have slammed Beijing - may not reflect how they behave once elected.

Mr Raymond Wu, of Fu Jen Catholic University, said the crunch will come when the World Health Organisation's top decision-making body meets in April.

'We'll see then if Beijing will honour its promise to allow Taiwan greater international space,' he said.

Taipei has been battling since 1997 to secure observer status at the World Health Assembly as a 'health entity', only to be thwarted by Beijing.

It might change under Mr Ma, however, as former KMT chief Lien Chan inked an agreement with Chinese President Hu Jintao during a landmark 2005 trip to the mainland under which Beijing agreed to open peace talks.

But even Mr Ma is unlikely to get too close to Beijing, given criticism from some people here of his friendly gesture toward China, analysts caution.

'If elected, Mr Ma would not visit China, because he has said he wanted to be the president for all, not the president of only his supporters,' retired diplomat Loh I Cheng said.

'Ma will continue to use Lien Chan as his liaison in dealing with China,' Mr Loh added.

Washington's growing concern about the rise of China is another factor Mr Ma will have to take into consideration, analysts say.

'The next US president, either a Republican or Democrat, would hope for a 'status quo' in the Taiwan Strait,' Mr Wu said - no independence but no reunification with China either.

Mr Ma has said he wants to repair ties too with the United States, which has been frustrated by the regular spike in cross-strait tensions under Mr Chen.