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TOKYO - JAPAN'S main opposition Democratic Party was poised to submit an embarrassing non-binding censure motion against Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda in parliament's upper house on Wednesday in a bid to trigger a early election.
The censure, likely to be adopted as opposition parties control the chamber, would be the first against a prime minister under the 1947 constitution but would not obligate Mr Fukuda to either resign or call an election.
Mr Fukuda has rejected calls for an early poll, but speculation persists that he might be replaced or dissolve the lower house before September 2009, when a general election for the chamber must be held. Upper house members serve fixed terms.
Below are some scenarios for how politics might play out:
- Mr Fukuda might decide to resign after hosting a July 7-9 Group of Eight summit in Hokkaido, northern Japan, in the hope of ending his premiership on a diplomatic high note.
Among those whose names have been floated to replace him are outspoken former Foreign Minister Taro Aso, former Chief Cabinet Secretary Kaoru Yosano, and former Defence Minister Yuriko Koike, a dark horse candidate to become Japan's first woman prime minister.
The new prime minister might then take advantage of initially high popularity ratings to call an early lower house election.
- Mr Fukuda could hang on to his job for the rest of this year, and dissolve the lower house in January for a February election after the national budget has been crafted for the fiscal year from April 1, 2009.
His goal would be to seek a popular mandate to break the political deadlock, although the upper house would remain in the hands of the opposition at least until after an election for the chamber in 2010.
* Mr Fukuda could hang on until the end of lower house lawmakers' maximum four-year term in September 2009, not risking an election until then out of fear the ruling bloc would lose the two-thirds majority that currently allows it to override upper house vetoes.
* Some policy feud could trigger a realignment of the two main political parties - the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan. Pundits and politicians say a realignment would be more likely after the next general election rather than before, especially if neither the ruling nor opposition camp wins a decisive victory. -- REUTERS
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