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Asia's loose monetary policy to stay
Wed, Nov 25, 2009
Reuters

ASIA'S speedy economic recovery relative to the rest of the world is not yet strong enough to withstand tighter monetary policy, Asian Development Bank (ADB) president Haruhiko Kuroda said on Monday.

"You see, at this stage, the economic recovery, even if not fragile, (is) not so solid. So monetary policy will continue to be expansionary for some time," Mr Kuroda told Reuters in an interview before a speech at Columbia University in New York.

"That might encourage some asset markets to overreact, so to speak. But at this stage, it is not advisable for the monetary authorities to tighten monetary policies," he said.

The ADB expects developing Asian economies on average to grow 3.9 per cent this year and 6.4 per cent next year.

The so-called Group of Three or G-3 - Japan, the United States and the euro zone - are projected by the bank to contract 3.7 per cent this year and grow 1.1 per cent next year.

Mr Kuroda said that inflationary pressures remain low and, in fact, are not rising in many countries, allowing them to keep interest rates low.

But when they do start to take away the monetary and/or fiscal stimulus, there is no compelling reason for Asia to do so all at once.

He pointed to South Korea's measures to rein in real-estate prices as careful management that has allowed them to hold off raising interest rates.

South Korea's top state-run research agency, the Korea Development Institute, said that the government should phase out emergency policy measures, after predicting that Asia's fourth-largest economy would grow 5.5 per cent next year.

As for India, Mr Kuroda noted that while the country had managed the crisis and its fiscal situation relatively well, the nation's high deficit would probably result in it being among the first to start removing stimulus measures.

India's fiscal deficit is forecast to rise to 6.8 per cent of GDP in the year up to March next year, a 16-year high, compared with 6.2 per cent in the previous year.

Separately, Mr Kuroda reiterated that emerging economies may not benefit from having free-floating currencies. "Many emerging-economy currency markets are thin, shallow, and subject to large fluctuations if left completely free. So, some sort of management is necessary and appropriate."

 
 
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