YANGON

IT WOULD have been a breakthrough in one of South-east Asia's trickiest diplomatic hornet's nests.

But, though regional leaders and some Western diplomats see opportunities for a breakthrough in the political stalemate in military-ruled Myanmar, reports of a recent crackdown and few signs of change on the ground have experts advising caution.

Long-awaited elections are set for next year, the last stop on Myanmar's "road map" to democracy.

But, in the wake of a historic Nov 15 meeting between United States President Barack Obama and Myanmar Prime Minister Thein Sein - the highest-level US-junta contact since the 1960s - veteran Myanmar- watchers say the junta has shown no real signs of softening its stance on dissidents.

Instead, rights groups and exiles report a rise in arrests of political activists and students, and stubborn doubts linger over whether political prisoners, including opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, will be released.

"There should be a sense of caution. We have been here before," says Mr Danny Richards, senior Asia editor and economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, referring to the junta's release of Ms Suu Kyi in 1995 and again in 2002.

The Nobel Peace Prize winner, detained for 14 of the last 20 years, was sentenced to a further 18 months in August.

"The military have often shown themselves to be keen to take a more conciliatory stance towards Aung San Suu Kyi and the opposition, and then, when international pressure fades, they go back to their hardline stance," Mr Richards says.

The junta promised Mr Obama, Asean leaders and Western diplomats that the coming vote will be free, fair and inclusive.

But no date has been set and electoral laws have yet to be drafted.

To be freed, Ms Suu Kyi would probably have to agree to terms restricting her from playing a significant role in the elections, says Mr Aung Zaw, editor of Thai-based magazine Irrawaddy, who has maintained contacts in Myanmar.

"If they release her, it's very difficult to put the genie back in the bottle," he says, adding that he believed the regime miscalculated Ms Suu Kyi's still-potent influence in the country and in her National League for Democracy party when they last released her in 2002.

"I don't think they will release her (without some agreement). It's too risky... She is still quite popular," he says.

Still, a thaw had seemed possible. Myanmar's premier told Asean leaders on Oct 25 that Ms Suu Kyi may be able to participate in politics again.

Then, last month, a senior official from the Foreign Ministry was quoted as saying that she could be released soon to help organise her party for polls.

But the official claimed later he had been misquoted.

Then came reports of a recent crackdown in Yangon.

Amnesty International issued a critical report last week on the arrest of 10 political activists and journalists in recent weeks for accepting overseas donations for survivors of Cyclone Nargis, which killed 140,000 people in the country last year.

"The 10... were among at least 41 dissidents arrested last month as part of a broader crackdown," the group said.

The report was backed up by the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a group of former detainees who track those behind bars.

It said that the authorities arrested up to 50 people in a crackdown in October.

In any case, the country's new constitution leaves little doubt the military will still run the show.

The military reserved 25 per cent of House seats for itself, along with control over key appointments.

The armed-forces chief will outrank the elected president and can assume power "in times of emergency".

Critics say the seven-stage "road map" is a blueprint to legitimise military rule.

Still, Mr Christopher Roberts, a Myanmar analyst at the University of Canberra, says a letter dated Nov 11 and written by Ms Suu Kyi requesting a meeting with the regime's top leader, General Than Shwe, showed a possible shift in attitudes.

"It shows an internal optimism that now is the best chance that they have had in a long time to try and put a constructive spin...that will improve the situation."