By Danny Kemp

BANGKOK, March 9, 2010 (AFP) - Myanmar's election laws have raised new concerns about fairness, but this year's polls are a step in the right direction and could still be a catalyst for change, analysts and activists say.

State newspapers Tuesday revealed that the country's military junta itself will handpick the new electoral commission, lending fuel to critics who say the polls are a sham aimed at entrenching the ruling generals' power.

But analysts said that despite regime leader Than Shwe's iron grip on his position, the vote is creating glimmers of instability in the political system and may even herald a shake-up in the regime's hierarchy.

"The election itself will be all that people fear it will be, but I've been surprised at the degree to which there is doubt and uncertainty (in the regime)," Sean Turnell, a Myanmar expert at Australia's Macquarie University, told AFP.

The playing field for the polls promised by the generals is already tilted, thanks to a new constitution passed in 2008, just days after devastating Cyclone Nargis killed 138,000 people in Myanmar.

A clause barring anyone from standing for election if they are married to foreigners rules out Aung San Suu Kyi, the detained head of the National League for Democracy, which won the last polls in 1990.

Her husband, British academic Michael Aris, died of cancer in 1999.

The regime has also extended Suu Kyi's house arrest until February 2011, keeping her in detention past the expected election date in October or November.

The constitution furthermore reserves around a quarter of all seats in Myanmar's new parliament for the military.

Activists said the first of the new electoral laws unveiled Tuesday consolidated the ruling government's position.

The law says the junta will choose each member of the electoral commission and each should be an "eminent person, to have integrity and experience, to be loyal to the state and its citizens and shall not be a member of a political party."

"It doesn't come as a surprise. In the short term I don't see any sort of meaningful change or improvement," Benjamin Zawacki, Amnesty International's Myanmar expert, told AFP after the details were unveiled.

"Certainly in the medium to long term almost any kind of change from the status quo has to have some kind of positive element to it, just because it's difficult to imagine, from a human rights point at least, just how much worse things could get," Zawacki said.

He said the regulations were getting "undue attention" that should be focused on the plight of more than 2,000 political prisoners in Myanmar, formerly known as Burma.

But other analysts said that even if the elections are fixed it is still a big step for a country that has been without the slightest semblance of democracy for two decades.

"All in all this is a new experience for Burma, so an election is an important step," said Aung Naing Oo, a Myanmar political analyst based in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai.

"Elections are important in the sense that we haven't had any for 20 years and it's important for the Burmese to learn to exercise their right. We won't get democracy overnight for sure, but it will be an important step nonetheless."

Analysts said the elections also cast some doubt over the future of the junta's top figures.

The constitution says the the State Peace and Development Council ? the junta that Than Shwe heads ? must hand over power to a new national assembly after the elections.

Than Shwe may take over the new presidential position provided for by the constitution to maintain his hold on power, but previous junta leaders have ended up in jail or under house arrest.

"We are in an interesting period in the lead-up because there is a lot more uncertainty than anyone really expected. There do seem to be some people (in the regime) jockeying around," said Macquarie University's Turnell.