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US economy sluggish, but still growing
Thu, Jan 17, 2008
AFP

WASHINGTON - THE US economy's growth slowed to a crawl at the end of 2007 amid tepid holiday spending, weak manufacturing and an extended housing slump, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book report on Wednesday.

The report, to be used at the Jan 29-30 Fed policy meeting, gave further evidence of an abrupt slowdown in the world's largest economy, but did not point to a meltdown that might mean a recession, according to analysts.

'Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve districts suggest that economic activity increased modestly during the survey period of mid-November through December, but at a slower pace compared with the previous survey period,' the Fed said in its report.

'Among districts, seven reported a slight increase in activity, two reported mixed conditions, and activity in three districts was described as slowing.'

Retail spending during the key holiday season was 'subdued' and there was 'further weakness in auto sales.' The housing market 'continued to be quite weak in all districts,' it added, while commercial real estate activity was mixed.

In manufacturing, the Fed cited 'pronounced weakness noted in housing-related industries as well as the automobile industry' which was offset in part by strong export demand for some goods.

The report was consistent with other indicators of softening economic conditions that is likely to prompt Fed policymakers to cut interest rates further.

The Fed has already cut rates three times since September, slashing a full percentage point from its federal funds rate, which now stands at 4.25 per cent.

Many private economists expect the Fed to cut rates another half-point this month, and some say even that may not avert a recession.

Yet analysts said the Beige Book tone was a bit more upbeat than many private forecasts.

Slowdown in economic activity
"Contrary to certain data, the Beige Book suggests a slowdown in economic activity at the end of 2007 and in early 2008 but not a sharp deterioration", said Marie-Pierre Ripert at Ixis Corporate and Investment Bank.

The economy grew at a solid 4.9 per cent pace in the third quarter but the Fed and private economists expect a much slower pace in the fourth quarter and into 2008, and some say a recession is possible if credit conditions stay tight.

Businesses were also facing rising costs for energy, petrochemicals, metals and food, the report said.

Wage increases 'remained moderate overall' although labour markets were 'relatively tight' except for housing-related jobs.

Banks said they had cut back on both their business and consumer lending and tightened up on their credit standards. Several Fed districts also reported rising delinquencies. -- AFP

 

 
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