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Blame culture for global trade imbalance
Wed, Mar 04, 2009
my paper

I READ a newspaper report on Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's interview with news channel CNBC.

In the interview, PM Lee made a number of interesting points about the global economy. Among them was his view
that the United States could no longer be relied upon to be the world's biggest customer.

He also pointed to a need for a rebalancing of how global and national economies operate.

However, the US will reclaim its title as the world's biggest consumer when its economy bounces back.

Spending on credit is part of American consumer culture - something which will propel demand when the recession is over.

This stands in sharp contrast to Asia, where spending within one's means and saving as much as possible are guiding principles dictated by culture and tradition.

Therefore, even after the global economy picks up, the world can still expect to see an imbalance in global trade. Asian exports, especially those from China and India, will outstrip the region's imports.

However, despite the trade deficit between the US and China,the US recognises that China is one of its most important strategic partners, along with Japan.

China's relationship with the US is also crucial for the bigger country.

A recovery in the US will benefit China, as China depends heavily on the US as an export market and the greenback is used as the benchmark for trade between the two countries.

Hence, a US recovery will mean China's continued investment in US Treasury bonds will lead to a win-win situation for China.

As for Singapore, it has to do business with the world, regardless of the administration governing the countries it trades with. As its domestic market is very small, exports will still be the focus of its economy.

Mr Teo Kueh Liang


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