By Daniel Finkelstein Special Correspondent

• ASTON VILLA v FULHAM

(Home win 57 per cent, Draw 22 per cent, Away win 21 per cent)

THIS should be an open match. Aston Villa are now a fine attacking side. They are 65 per cent as good as Manchester United up front, which isn't bad when you consider that Arsenal are only 62 per cent as good as Chelsea overall.

And Fulham are pretty good going forward too. Villa have a 29 per cent chance of making the Champions League next season, while Fulham have a 22 per cent chance of relegation. Why the disparity? Fulham can't defend.

• MIDDLESBROUGH v NEWCASTLE

(Home 48, Draw 26, Away 27)

THERE is actually remarkably little difference between these teams. They are both poor in attack and only mediocre in defence. The gap between them is only a couple of percentage points.

But when it comes to league positions, things are tight enough that the lost points already racked up by Newcastle puts the teams far apart. Boro have an 8 per cent chance of the drop while for Newcastle it is a dizzying 31 per cent.

• STOKE CITY v HULL CITY

(Home 39, Draw 27, Away 34)

ONE of the extraordinary features of this season is that with all those wins under their belt, Hull still need points to be safe. They have a 9 per cent chance of going down despite our mean expected position for them being 10th.

Hull don't score freely, but Stoke are far worse. Their attack is 39th, meaning it would struggle even in the Championship. All these factors suggest a tight game. If there is a winner it will probably be the first scorer.

• SUNDERLAND v BOLTON

(Home 36, Draw 27, Away 37)

DJIBRIL Cisse missed again and again as Roy Keane's men went down to the Hammers. But it is not just their attack (ranked 25th) that is the problem. It is their defence (ranked 20th) too.

Bolton, just because they are at least mediocre, are 33 per cent better than Sunderland. That doesn't incidentally mean that they are safe. They have a 13 per cent chance of relegation. But Sunderland now have a 53 per cent chance of going down.

• WIGAN v WEST BROM

(Home 55, Draw 23, Away 22)

WEST Brom are having a terrible season. They are finding it hard to defend even against their old Championship rivals, teams they could sweep aside in times gone by. Yet they are not a terrible side. They still rank eighth in attack.

It should not be beyond the wit of a team like that to escape the drop and we believed at the beginning of the season that they would. We are less certain now - if they carry on like this we expect them to finish bottom. Wigan are much more solid.

• The writer is a soccer columnist and associate editor of The Times in London. A Chelsea fan, he was awarded an OBE in 1997.