By Ng Tze Yong

WHEN the financial storm passes, the world will go back to how it was before.

It will be trimmer, leaner, without the excesses of the past.

But there will be no fundamental changes in the way the world does business.

This was Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew's prediction in a speech at the opening of the new Alumni Complex at the National University of Singapore last night.

'I do not believe that there is going to be any fundamental change.

'The Americans, they are optimistic... They always believe that tomorrow will be a better day, next year will be better, they'll discover something new... and I think, they will.

'My belief is, people don't change so easily...'

And in yet another startling forecast, MM Lee said that the economy could take up to six years to recover.

'The optimistic scenario is two, three years, we are out of this,' he said. 'At the worst, four, five, sixyears.'

Earlier this month, MM Lee had raised the possibility of Singapore's economy shrinking by as much as 10 per cent this year.

At the time, the official forecast was only -2 per cent to -5 per cent.

Despite his bleak assessment, MM Lee added that Singapore is well-poised to ride the good times again when they return.

Planning ahead

He pointed out the Free Trade Agreements that Singapore has signed with countries like the US and China, and the good relationships forged with the Arabian Gulf states.

'When we recover, if we don't prosper, then we are stupid,' he said.

MM Lee was speaking on the topic of 'Singapore and Singaporeans - Quarter century from now' to a audience of former and present students of NUS, numbering about 1,000.

He said that Singapore will see a different demographic and ethnic composition because Singaporeans are not reproducing themselves fast enough.

'Without new immigrants, we are going to be like the last of the Mohicans,' he said.

The main ethnic groups, however, will remain Chinese, Malays and Indians, MM Lee believes.

Assessing the state of the world, he said a pessimistic scenario will be a dangerous cold war between the US and her allies, and China and her allies.

'America knows there's only one country that can challenge her, and that's China,' he said.

'India may well be neutral. Russia will be with anybody who is against America.'

In such a world, globalisation will slow, and Singapore will suffer.

A more optimistic scenario, MM Lee said, would be that China gets along with its neighbours, Asean takes off and the Asean economic community becomes a reality.

The likely outcome, he predicted, will be somewhere in between.

'This is a world in flux, and we're part of that,' he said.

This article was first published in The New Paper.

Read also:
» On single S'porean women

» On Chinese students