MYANMAR is a 'time-bomb', Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew has said. It is an apt image, except one cannot quite say when the bomb will explode. For the moment, the regime of Senior General Than Shwe has managed to impose the peace of the grave. The junta has arrested hundreds, if not thousands, of its opponents and killed goodness knows how many. But it is only a matter of time before Myanmar's people rise up again. And when they do, what will Gen Than do? Kill a few hundred more? Imprison thousands more? How long, in this day and age, can a regime with little support abroad and dependent almost wholly on the gun to enforce its will at home, rule?

The international community should be clear about its aims in Myanmar. They are not to overthrow the junta by imposing sanctions on the country or to establish a model democracy. They are to encourage national reconciliation, as Asean has urged, pressure the generals to accelerate the implementation of the political reforms that they have promised but never put in place, and restore some kind of civilian rule based on universal suffrage. Any one of these aims would be difficult enough to achieve and it would be pointless shooting for the ideal. Myanmar is a multi-ethnic country, with the Burmese constituting no more than 60 per cent of its population. If central authority were to collapse precipitously, the country will descend into civil war. China, India, Thailand and Laos may well get drawn into this war, for Myanmar's restive ethnic minorities live mostly along the country's borders with its neighbours. The last thing Asean and the world need now is an Iraq-like implosion in the heart of South-east Asia.

The best hope the international community has now is the UN special envoy, Mr Ibrahim Gambari. Aided by pressure from the UN, Asean and China, he has already made some progress by convincing the generals to talk with the detained opposition leader, Ms Aung San Suu Kyi. The next step would be to press for her release and a timetable for the restoration of civilian rule. Myanmar's tragedy is that 50 years of incompetent military rule have left it without any civilian institution equipped to run the country. Miss Suu Kyi recognises this fact and has acknowledged that national reconciliation must involve the military. Whether the generals too recognise that national reconciliation involves their acknowledging that the military is not the whole of the nation is a different matter. Sooner or later, the people of Myanmar will force the generals to recognise this fact, but one hopes more blood need not be spilled before that day arrives.