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These include ex-health minister Chua Soi Lek being video-taped having sex in a hotel room with 'a friend'; the trial of a well-connected think-tank strategist over the murder of a Mongolian woman, which potentially carries implications for people in very high places; and the release by opposition leader and former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim of the now infamous Lingam Tapes that apparently reveal serious improprieties in the appointment of top judges. Coming just before and after the celebration of Malaysia's 50th anniversary, these incidents have contributed to growing despair over the deteriorating state of governance in the country. That despair was most poignantly expressed by the Nov 25 protest attended by tens of thousands of Malaysians, in defiance of a government ban. The demonstration was tactically presented as an appeal to the United Kingdom for redress of colonial suppression of the Indian community, a situation now supposedly continued by the post-colonial regime. This approach definitely touched a raw nerve and, in a move that has hurt its damaged reputation even more, the Abdullah government used the Internal Security Act, which allows long-term detention without trial, to charge five of the organisers of the protest. This angered the Indian community even more. Datuk Seri Abdullah's attempt to calm the Indians by declaring Thaipusam a holiday in the Federal Territories had limited effect, as could be seen by a boycott of celebrations at the Batu Caves Temple on Jan 23. So far, the string of protests has drawn attention to issues such as sustained electoral injustice, a long-running crisis in the judiciary, the continued unfair treatment of non-bumiputeras, as well as the spectre of rising prices. Looming in the background are the seemingly endless cases of inter-faith confrontations, which include 'body-snatching' by the Muslim religious authorities of recently deceased persons who had purportedly converted to Islam, and the confounding regulation that the word 'Allah' could not be used by Christian and other non-Muslim publications. Despite bonuses for civil servants, a generous budget and the launching of corridors of development throughout the country last year, the feel-good factor that the coalition government usually gives strong consideration to when calling for elections is not making itself felt. Perhaps because there is little prospect of the mood in the country changing any time soon, the rumour mills, fuelled by factual titbits such as the cancellation of leave for policemen and the advice to top leaders not to leave the country, are predicting an election by March. Such rumours have been swirling for more than a year, and as is the nature of such things, they will prove to be right sooner or later. Dates are already being floated. However, the truth is that Prime Minister Abdullah, despite not having to call for elections until early next year, now finds himself running out of options. He cannot rely on the feel-good factor any longer. He is also under pressure to cut subsidies on fuel and other necessities as well as to allow toll hikes. When those measures come, it is almost certain that protests against the subsequent rise in living costs will follow. Thus, he has either to call elections before he cuts subsidies, which means as soon as possible, or he will cut subsidies and wait for the longest possible time before calling elections, relying on the memory of the citizens being weak. None of these choices is ideal for a prime minister who proudly won 91 per cent of the seats in the last election. Being at the mercy of the government's right to call elections at very short notice, the opposition has in turn been very active in recent months. It has little choice. With the wind in its sails, it is trying hard to convert as many as possible of the voices of discontent into votes of dissent against the government. Given their inferior strength, it is only natural that the strategies of the major opposition parties blend in with those of non-governmental organisations and their initiatives. Such a state of affairs creates paranoia among the authorities, who are finding it harder and harder to tell one apart from the other. In the end, they treat all protests, all critical voices and all discontent as part of a conspiracy, run by top opposition figures such as Datuk Seri Anwar. With the large number of issues engaging Malaysians, public demonstrations can go on for months to come. Perhaps it is tactically most sound for Prime Minister Abdullah to do this year what Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad did in 1999 and call for elections early, before things get worse. The writer is a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. He is the author of the bestselling The Reluctant Politician: Tun Dr Ismail And His Time (ISEAS 2006). TIMELY MOVE Perhaps it is tactically most sound for PM Abdullah to do this year what Tun Dr Mahathir did in 1999 and call for elections early.
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