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China against the elements
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Tue, Feb 05, 2008
The Straits Times
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CH | INA laid low by winter storms during the annual mass migration for the Chinese New Year should be chiefly a matter of logistics. But this year's holiday-season ice and snow storms, the most extreme in 50 years, have become a political test in a way that is uniquely China for the numbers involved and of the straining infrastructure that cannot cope. The delicate scenario of millions of migrant workers denied their one annual visit home, and of the many millions more denied light and home heating by system breakdowns, has been grave enough to bring out to various stricken locations the nation's three top leaders - the President, the Premier and the head of Parliament. They have done right to show themselves. So far, there has been little unrest among the marooned travellers and home residents coping with the cold. This is a societal change from the China of even a decade ago. The leaders would be quietly appreciative - but they should not linger to savour it. After this is over, the government will have to think hard about big-time investments in capital stock and relief planning scenarios. Some logistical relief was reported yesterday with most airports and roads in the southern and central regions open again, although the forecast is for more snowfalls through the holiday week. Train stations in major cities like Guangzhou have begun to lighten, not with travellers sent on their way but because of people giving up hope of making the trip.
The Beijing leadership should not make the mistake of imagining this is a one-off occurrence, a mischance of nature. Acts of nature have brought down innumerable reigns in the past. The first lesson the state planners would take to heart is to invest much more in infrastructure, and more evenly across the nation. This principally would be transport links for goods haulage and people movement, and the national electricity grid. The coastal cities have been favoured with first-class infrastructure built with investors in mind. More resources need to be set aside for the central, southern and western provinces. The blocked roads and inoperative rail links of the past weeks meant that coal supplies for power plants could not get through. Food shipments were also stuck. This has worsened inflation. Another lesson learnt is the emergency preparedness. The dispatch of soldiers and paramilitary forces for relief work is a fallback. What China needs is a systemic approach to develop, probably by region, emergency services for relief and to get essential infrastructure working. These would be designed to prevail over natural disasters and urban chaos. It is a huge undertaking in systems organisation. The people will expect this of a rising economic force.
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