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THESE are trying times for stock investors.
The much-awaited United States job data for last month, released last Friday, turned out to be worse than expected.
Yet, instead of recoiling with fear over the pace at which the ailing US economy was deteriorating, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eased only 0.1 per cent that day.
For the bulls, it is a signal that savvy investors believe the worst of the global credit crisis may be over, and that it is time to pick up shares again.
But the bears, mindful of the many false dawns that have lured many investors into making imprudent investments since the crisis erupted in August, are sceptical.
Is this really the light at the end of the tunnel, or that of an onrushing train?
Stock markets have been rallying ever since the US central bank bailed out investment bank Bear Stearns and eased fears that big financial institutions could topple if they fail to get much-needed credit when they encounter a run in investors' confidence.
Last week, the benchmark Straits Times Index rose by 123.66 points or 4.1 per cent to 3,155.56. This brought its total gains in the past fortnight to 11.7 per cent.
Some traders, though, are worried that there may be plenty of other uncertainties that may send stock markets into a tailspin once more.
One big worry is the state of the US economy, the biggest export market for many Asian countries.
Last month, the US lost 80,000 jobs - its steepest monthly drop since March 2003. This was also far more than the 50,000 jobs lost that economists had been expecting.
Wall Street, however, was able to put a positive spin to it, with some market experts noting that the size of the job losses was not large when compared with those during previous US recessions.
In any case, such an awful set of jobs data will prompt the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again during its next rate-fixing meeting at the end of the month.
Anticipation of this move by the Fed should provide much-needed support to equities markets across the globe.
For traders in Singapore, spiralling inflation caused by soaring food and fuel prices is also a big concern.
Even though China plays, which have a big following among the country's retail investors, have staged a spectacular recovery in the past two weeks, the concerns that have dogged them since the start of the year have not evaporated.
Earnings from Chinese companies are uncertain, because their businesses have had to endure escalating costs as raw material prices surge.
Under the circumstances, it is too early to tell if investors who harbour hopes that they are finally seeing daylight after a dark and stormy night are right.
engyeow@sph.com.sg
LINGERING CONCERNS
Some traders are worried that there may be other uncertainties - in the US economy, in particular - that may send stock markets into a tailspin once more.
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