|
THE Myanmar rebellion has been put down. It would be comforting to be able to append the words 'for now'. But the odds of a new, decisive upsurge of opposition to the military usurpers would be long, although the spirit of resistance in a long repressed state such as Myanmar can be held down for only so long. Security forces have secured the streets of Yangon. Barbed barricades that have gone up will make renewed protesting harder to execute. The mopping up of monks, monasteries' novices and political dissidents is well under way with mass arrests, to be followed almost certainly by indefinite detention. Myanmar reportedly already has more than a thousand political prisoners held in limbo since the 1988-90 uprising and localised security incidents after that. Nobody should be surprised that the military has regained the upper hand against a non-violent movement led by men of the faith. The mercy was that fatal shootings were kept low. Possibly the one way the dictatorship can collapse is through rot from within: policy disagreements and venality leading to dissension at the top, and soldiers and policemen deserting in large numbers to join the oppressed as the Buddhist clergy's ritual act of 'disowning' men in uniform for being enemies of the downtrodden is having a profound effect on the rank and file. Whichever the scenario that is to follow - the unscathed junta prospers for years more, or sporadic resistance weakens its authority - two questions are pertinent. First, where to from here? The junta cannot endure forever. Clandestine uploads of protest images and broadcast dissent are undermining its ability to control events. The people are storing up anger. There has to be an accommodation reached with the civilian opposition while the generals can still have a role in governance. China and India must do what they can within the limits of their influence with the generals to prod them in that direction. Reconciliation should be followed by an election timetable set but this should not be rushed. Second, should Asean do more than issue strong statements? The grouping to which Myanmar was admitted only in 1997 has done the right thing in condemning in strong language the use of force on protesters. But look at Asean's record of benign contending with the regime: non-interference has scarcely been appreciated; constructive engagement has brought Myanmar no closer to pluralism and empowerment of its citizens. If the harsh rule and killings go on without let, a stage will be reached when the other member nations must ask themselves whether Myanmar's continued membership would damage irreparably Asean's standing.
| 
