THE show of anger and defiance on Teheran streets in protest against the election result has been real. If it wasn't, the theocratic establishment would not have been shaken as much as it has. As part evidence, the powerful Council of Guardians ordered a sample audit of 10 per cent of ballots cast, despite the clerics' assertion the election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to a second term had been proper. Whatever cynicism critics may attach to the exercise, the concession is a comedown. It is an admission that a failure to account could set off an uprising, as opposed to the noisy demonstrations seen the past week, in spite of the overwhelming illogic that the incumbent's forces could have falsified the polling to win by 11 million votes. It is almost sure there was diddling, but not the wholesale fraud alleged.

A rift has also opened up between the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and ex-presidents Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohamad Khatami. The former presidents are supposedly in the vanguard of reformist change in support of the defeated candidate, Mr Mir Hossein Mousavi. Were this the intent, the duo, who are wily operators, would have better success working the levers of real state power, like the Assembly of Experts and the Expediency Council. Both organs are headed by Mr Rafsanjani. It should be noted Mr Mousavi has no substantive quarrel with the clerical leadership. And this for the benefit of the United States and Israel: He also is in favour of Iran persisting with its nuclear programme, for civilian purposes.

With Iran this unsettled, nations of a liberal tradition would like nothing better than to see what they consider a disruptive Islamic republic come apart in violent revolution. This is a dangerous line of wishful thinking: an Iran in the hands of a known cabal is preferable to a hodge-podge, indeterminate construct that would emerge from the revolutionary embers. What change that will come - women's rights, wider political enfranchisement, friendlier relations with major powers - must be made by the Iranians themselves, at a pace they can manage. It will be fatal if the US and nations which had a role in Iran's tumultuous past tried to foment incidents in the misguided belief these would help the reformers.

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