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Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Asia

North Korea may be close to developing nuclear missile, some say

Reuters | Tuesday, May 20, 2014

SEOUL - North Korea, which this month threatened to carry out a fourth nuclear test, may be closer than previously thought to putting a nuclear warhead on a missile, some experts say, making a mockery of years of UN sanctions aimed at curbing such a programme.

North Korea has long boasted of making strides in acquiring a "nuclear deterrent", but there had been general skepticism that it could master the step of miniaturizing a nuclear warhead to mount on a ballistic missile.

No one outside the inner circle of North Korea's nuclear programme likely knows what advances the country has made. But there has been a shift in thinking by some who study North Korea full time since it conducted a nuclear test in February last year and amid on-off indications it is preparing another.

The isolated and poverty-stricken state, which regularly threatens to destroy the United States and South Korea in a sea of flames, defends its nuclear programme as a "treasured sword" to counter what it sees as US-led hostility.

And there was now "tremendous technological motivation" to conduct a nuclear test as it races to perfect the technology to miniaturize warheads, a South Korean nuclear expert said.

"The field deployment of a nuclear missile is imminent," said Kim Tae-woo, former head of South Korea's state-run Korea Institute for National Unification, who also served as head of research at the state-run Korea Institute for Defence Analyses.

Diplomatic sources told Reuters that China, North Korea's lone major ally, had used diplomatic channels to warn North Korea against a nuclear test, another possible sign that Pyongyang is considering such a move.

Experts say the delivery vehicle of choice for the North's first nuclear warhead would most likely be the mid-range Rodong missile, which has a design range of 1,300 km (800 miles).

"Given the number of years that North Korea has been working at it, my assessment is that they can mount a warhead on a Rodong," Mark Fitzpatrick, director of the non-proliferation at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said.

"...Also, there is no doubt that Pakistan can mount a nuclear warhead on its version of the Rodong ...It is reasonable to assume that North Korea can too. How reliable the warhead would be is another question."

A South Korean government official involved in monitoring the North's nuclear capabilities said miniaturization was "within sight".

"It is likely there has been progress, but on the question of whether they have actually achieved it, I'd have to say not yet," he said.

In March, the North fired two Rodong missiles which flew about 650 km (400 miles) before splashing into the sea off the east coast, well short of their full range.

Some experts interpreted the short flight as a test of a modified missile designed to carry a nuclear warhead by cutting the amount of fuel on board.

"A long-range missile test makes little sense for North Korea as a test to deliver a nuclear warhead," Kim said. "...if the North deploys a nuclear weapon, the strongest candidate to carry it will be the Rodong."

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