Gen Than Shwe, 70, the xenophobic head of the nation's State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), is known to be a shrewd and well-informed man, glued to the internet. His rise to the top level was a skilful manoeuvre by keeping peers and subordinates off balance by playing one against the other.

But, there are divisions between him and his deputy Gen Maung Aye, 70, over the use of Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) and Swan Arr Shin cadres - and then of soldiers - against monks and civilians.

The USDA, set up to eventually be a political party and form a puppet government - is Gen Than Shwe's baby, but Gen Maung Aye has kept away from it.

Hence, the successor will have to preside over a army with problems. Both the USDA and Swan Arr Shin comprise civilians, with the latter being mainly hired thugs and former convicts. The army has swelled to half a million men - but with deteriorating quality.

The gap between the army and the rest of the society is widening and experts believe that the recent shooting on the monks may have scarred the psyche of many junior officers.

But while the chances of an army collapse are thin, the need for change in Myanmar has to be come from young officers within the force.

Read the full story in Saturday's edition of The Straits Times.