By Patrick Jonas

HOLIDAY season is approaching and many in Singapore are holding their breath. This includes the many Indian expatriates waiting to visit India or go on a holiday elsewhere.

I too have a family holiday planned in early June to Europe. Tickets have been booked and so are the hotel rooms. Will the Influenza A (H1N1) bug derail my plans?

A few cases of the flu have been reported in some European countries. However, the World Health Organisation (WHO) says it does not want to place any restriction on regular travel or closure of borders.

All it says is that "it is considered prudent for people who are ill to delay international travel and for people developing symptoms following international travel to seek medical attention, in line with guidance from national authorities".

The WHO continues to keep its alert at level 5 in its six-point scale. Singapore is reducing its alert from orange to yellow from May 11. That's some relief.

The Singapore Ministry of Health advises through its website that members of the public should postpone or avoid non-essential travel to affected areas.

The question that concerns me, and I am sure there are many like me, is whether the flu bug will spread.

The WHO has cautioned nations not to let their guard down as there may be a second, more severe, wave of infection. As of May 6, 23 countries have officially reported a total of 1,893 cases of influenza A infection.

Giving up a holiday is not a big deal and I am prepared to do it should the flu virus spread.

The Singapore health authorities are taking the challenge posed by the flu virus head on which is reassuring to the residents here. But it cannot stop the fear created by the bug.

This fear can do more damage than the illness itself. Businesses can be affected, which in turn could cripple an already wounded economy.

The airline industry, now flying through turmoil, could go into a tailspin should the disease spread and last a few months.

I remember going to Changi airport to receive a friend during the period when Sars hit Singapore in 2003. An eery silence filled the vast arrival hall and the few travellers I spotted were wearing masks and casting suspicious glances at those who were not.

Overnight, Singapore had become one of the least favoured tourist destinations. By the time the Sars outbreak was controlled, the economy had taken a big hit. Many lost their jobs.

Will that happen again? Right now the visible fear is about the illness but the hidden fear is about the economy.

Pork sellers have seen their business shrink, even though the Ministry of Health has said there is no risk of infection from consumption of well-cooked pork and pork products.

The MOH warns us to wash our hands thoroughly with soap and water on a regular basis and that we should seek medical attention if we develop any symptoms of influenza-like illness.

The authorities here are also keeping us informed without inciting panic. They have raised the alarm which prevents people from drifting into complacency, thinking that the government will do its bit and keep them away from harm.

Panic can cause unwanted problems.

Back in 1976, the US government predicted a swine flu pandemic after an army recruit died. Scared, some 40 million took a newly developed vaccine. It is said that the vaccine turned out to be more dangerous than the pandemic that never happened. Many suffered serious side-effects from the vaccine.

For Singapore, the experience of fighting Sars is invaluable. And that is what gives the people here faith in the authorities.

"We have been preparing for a pandemic since 2004," said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong last week. But Singapore cannot be complacent he said.

That message was reinforced on May 6. Announcing the scaling down of the orange alert to yellow, Health Minister Khaw Boon Wan said: "Let me stress that the situation remains dynamic and we must continue to stay vigilant and manage this crisis nimbly, scaling up or down as necessary."

To know more about the situation in Singapore and what the MOH is doing visit http://www.moh.gov.sg/moh-corp/default.aspx.

patrickj@sph.com.sg

This article was first published in tabla!