News @ AsiaOne

Thai PM's ouster solves nothing

If PAD is unhappy with his successor, which is likely, protests will resume. -AFP

Wed, Dec 03, 2008
AFP

by Charlies McDonald-Gibson

THE court ruling forcing Thailand's Premier from office meets a key demand of anti-government protesters, but will not end the turmoil.

The Constitutional Court disbanded Mr Somchai Wongsawat's People Power Party (PPP) and two coalition partners over voter fraud yesterday - banning their top leaders from politics for five years - just a week after protesters shut down Bangkok's two airports.

As a result, Thailand intends to postpone the Asean summit from this month to next March while it gets its house in order.

But all six parties in the ruling coalition aim to simply stick together and form a new government, government spokesman Nattawut Saikuar said.

MPs from the banned parties, including the PPP's remaining 219, will move to new "shell" parties; a vote in the now 448-member House for a new premier is slated for next week.

So, what will change?

The verdict does mark the political demise of Mr Somchai, deposed premier Thaksin Shinawatra's brother-in-law, who was in office for less than three months.

But his successor would face exactly the same problems.

The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which leads the protesters, is composed of enemies of Thaksin. They have been battling the government since May, calling it his proxy.

They are now ending their airport blockade and rallies. But if the PAD is unhappy with the new PM - which is likely, since the same people are in charge - protests will resume.

Should the cycle repeat itself, thinks Chris Baker - who has written several books on Thai politics, "the army would move".

Yet unless pro-government crowds clash with the PAD, with much bloodshed, the army may be extremely reluctant to intervene.

That leaves the revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who passed up a chance to mention the deepening crisis yesterday during a short speech at a military parade in Bangkok.

He addresses the nation tomorrow, on the eve of his birthday.

Many hope for guidance. Ultimately, Mr Giles Ji Ungpakorn, a political analyst of Chulalongkorn University, is right to call yesterday's ruling a "judicial coup d'etat", showing the court's increased willingness to wade into politics.

"It's not going to solve the problems," he said. "It just shows that the elite are lining up against the government and the majority of the electorate."

The PAD protests spotlight a deeper, long-running divide in Thai society: Their backers include elements in the military, bureaucracy and the palace, who despised Thaksin because of his popularity with the rural poor.

 
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