WITH the terror operative Mas Selamat Kastari still not caught three days after his escape, it is probable he has slipped out to either Malaysia or a nearby Indonesian island. From these places, the cocoon of the southern Philippines beckons. Chances of a capture cannot be rated highly in the vastness of the Indonesian and Philippine interior. This is the worst scenario imaginable as the security risk to the region is raised a notch. Interpol has issued a worldwide alert, with the requisite photos of the fugitive. He is a wily adversary, a dangerous man to have on the loose. But experts consulted think he is more likely to be in hiding in Singapore, waiting for an opportune moment to get out of the island. In this case, chances of the security dragnet netting its target before long would be good.

The question has to be confronted whether Mas Selamat had help, as it goes to the heart of intelligence gathering and the reliability of the security network. It stretches credulity to imagine this was an opportunistic solo effort, sprung when he was about to receive a family visit. The escape was too easy, too neat. If indeed it was, the security lapse acknowledged by Home Affairs Minister Wong Kan Seng would have been worse than it seemed. If the escape had been planned with outside collaborators, how had Mas Selamat communicated with them? Who were these people? Singapore has supposedly been swept clean of Jemaah Islamiah operatives. The permutations are not pleasant: If he acted unaided, the system breakdown was egregious; if he had help, it says terror cells are still morphing and sympathisers are being drawn into the network.

Security incidents like this one and the case of the NSman facing prosecution for taking a rifle out of an army camp will shake confidence in the anti- terror system. It has been praised by international security specialists for being robust. Compliments from outsiders are cheap. Singapore can take them or lump them. It is the safety of Singaporeans the security agencies have to answer to. Because the city-state has been free of terror hits through the worst patch of terrorism in the region, complacency may have set in. The systems designed are solid. These are what experts admire. But are security chiefs satisfied that rank and file personnel are discharging their duties with matching thoroughness? Immigration control, police on beat duty, Customs checks, the guarding of army camps, armouries and high-security installations are not routine work. Weaknesses in any of these links must imperil the bulwark.