While the significance of Pilihan Raya Umum, or General Election 2008, can be read in many ways, one less obvious dimension is the old rivalry between two key personalities - Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi and former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim - and what they represent.

At the core, both leaders embody the politics of moderation in a plural society; they draw from the same wellspring of centrist Islamic values of wasata or wasatiyah which upholds Islam's 'middle way' principles. Wasata is accommodationist, universalist and humanistic, according respect to all, regardless of race or creed.

Prime Minister Abdullah is defending the status quo in the politics of moderation, which is now under stress. Datuk Seri Anwar promises a new approach to the same thing - but through the opposition route. He seeks to build a viable alternative to the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) by reconciling the seemingly irreconcilable pillars of the Malaysian opposition spectrum - one Islamist and Malay-based (Parti Islam SeMalaysia or PAS) and the other secularist and Chinese-based (Democratic Action Party or DAP).

Datuk Seri Abdullah is also defending his reputation. This general election may confirm the view that he is at best a one-term prime minister. Or it may prove that he is capable of surprises - and therefore long-term leadership - in the same way the margin of BN's victory in the 2004 elections had stumped many.

For Datuk Seri Anwar, 2008 may see the premature end of his future as a political leader, even before he can make a formal return to politics. Or it will point to a new dawn for him - and for Malaysian politics.

For decades, Prime Minister Abdullah and Datuk Seri Anwar have had a cool relationship, despite both coming from Penang, and a common belief in wasata values, which moulded their original image as Islamic leaders.

For Datuk Seri Anwar, this general election is the beginning of a new battle to remake Malaysian politics. Ironically, what he is trying to achieve is not unlike what Umno founder Onn Jaafar tried but failed miserably to bring about in the 1950s. This battle begins with Datuk Seri Anwar's own re-invention as a political leader, and the struggle to revive the shaky opposition coalition called the Barisan Alternatif (BA).

Two things should be noted here: First, Datuk Seri Anwar's metamorphosis from a Malay nationalist and Islamic leader to a universalist all-embracing politician claiming to represent all groups. Second, the creeping compromises made by the erstwhile ideological foes, the DAP and PAS. It is a mistake to dismiss these less-than-subtle changes as political gimmickry.

Despite all the talk about Datuk Seri Anwar eventually returning to Umno, their rejection of each other means there is no other way for him to become prime minister except through the alternative route. Election 2008 is just his first step. It is part of a series of elections that he must fight, and win, if he is to return to power - an uphill task, if at all possible.

So what will make a successful general election for the two old nemesis? For Prime Minister Abdullah, he may lose many seats, but he would be deemed successful if he captures Kelantan - the only state in the federation still in opposition hands. Or if he snatches away Penang's Permatang Pauh, Datuk Seri Anwar's long-standing - and his party's sole - parliamentary seat, now defended by his wife. The fall of Permatang Pauh could deal a symbolic, even severe, blow to Datuk Seri Anwar's political comeback.

Success for Datuk Seri Anwar is to secure anything between 35 and 40 seats - or about half of the 75 seats that would deny the ruling BN a two-thirds majority.

Officially, the opposition says it wants to repeat 1999, when it pulled off a good showing in the wake of Datuk Seri Anwar's sacking in 1998. The now re-energised opposition is again talking about denying the BN a two-thirds majority. This is a pipe dream because the BN is too entrenched. I suspect the real opposition target is to capture half of the number needed to deny BN a two-thirds majority, or 37 seats.

This will be enough to create a psychological threshold, which could then trigger a '1969 scenario' in which major policies are eventually reviewed. In 1969, the opposition successfully denied the then ruling Alliance its two-thirds majority, leading to major policy shifts, such as the creation of the larger BN coalition and the introduction of the New Economic Policy as well as the nation-building principles of Rukunegara.

A 2008 general election in which the opposition achieves half its target of denying the BN its two-thirds majority, yet manages to trigger a long-term realignment of politics, is what I call the 'semi-1969 scenario'.

In 2004, when the BN had its best showing ever, the opposition won 20 seats. So this time around, the opposition needs to win between 17 and 20 more seats to secure that psychological breakthrough.

This is not too far-fetched a goal, given the current anti- government mood among all the major communities - Chinese, Indian and even Malay. The opposition would have suffered a setback if it fails to win at least 30 parliamentary seats this time, or 10 more than in 2004.

A psychological victory would embolden the opposition in trying for a stronger showing at the next general election five years from now. By then, Datuk Seri Anwar would have become a bigger threat to the BN as a formal opposition leader. As it is, even PAS, entering what many see as its post-Islamist phase, has become more accepting of political cooperation with both the Chinese-led DAP and the Malay-led PKR, Datuk Seri Anwar's own party.

Most critical now is Datuk Seri Anwar's attempt at non-communal politics. This has not been tried by a major Malay leader since the disastrous experiment of Datuk Onn Jaafar 50 years ago to open up Umno to all races.

Going by history, Datuk Seri Anwar's challenge is enormous. But if the BA under him makes inroads, performs better than in 2004 and sustains that performance over the next two elections, it will sow the seeds for the emergence of a viable two-coalition system.

The Anwar-led opposition coalition is pushing for a 'new' approach to politics that is not fixated on an Islamic state or the supremacy of Malay rights. It offers to embrace all minorities, at the same time relying on a 'middle way' Malay-Muslim leadership to be viable.

A new formula of Malaysian politics is being floated, and it will be tested severely on March 8 when Malaysians go to the polls.

The writer is a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

WINDS OF CHANGE?

A new formula of Malaysian politics is being floated, and it will be tested severely on March 8 when Malaysians go to the polls.