Singapore buys most of its rice from Thailand and Vietnam, both dependable suppliers. Provided importers and individual buyers can bear the higher cost, the market need not be disrupted. An assurance of supply is critical as it will shape market sentiment more than price, in this instance. But some households have begun stocking up. The impulse should be resisted as import contracts have continued to be honoured, though with mark-ups, and distribution throughout the island is even. Consumer psychology, however, tends to be irrational. The Government's assurance of uninterrupted supply should be reinforced by a doubling in the rice stockpile. Stocks are good for three months' consumption at a crunch. Make it six months worth and see if the people would not feel doubly assured.

But Singaporeans need to be apprised of a fundamental change in the rice trade so as not to be thrown into a panic by spiking prices. Until the end of 2006 rice held steady at US$300 a tonne while other crops such as wheat and maize were setting records, due partly to the unseemly haste to use certain crops for biofuels. Last year's run of bad weather in China, Australia and the Indochina states reduced rice output. There was also cropland damage, a serious matter as it takes several years to bring land into production. Bad weather is a variable factor. Not so the rising grain consumption in China and India, which henceforth will be a constant factor. More land can be set aside for rice cultivation, but there are competing demands to grow feedstock for animals to satisfy the two nations' growing appetite for meat and dairy products as well. There is hope that China's start in growing genetically-modified strains will multiply yields, but the results are a way off. Consumers should brace themselves for the prognosis: The era of cheap rice is ending.